Feature Writer - Scott Baret
June 16, 2010
Is the Macintosh Doomed?
by Scott Baret
by Scott Baret
The death of the Macintosh platform has been predicted several times over the 26 years since the introduction of the original model. The rumors were especially rampant during Apple's "dark years" in the mid-1990s but died down once Steve Jobs returned the company to viability with products such as the iMac, Mac OS X, and iPod. The iPod, creative marketing, and reports of stability brought many "switchers" to the Mac world in the 2000s, but the iPad's introduction and success of the iPhone OS has made many wonder if the Macintosh is endangered once again.
It cannot be denied that mobile devices are starting to supplant traditional computers for some uses. iPod Touches, iPads, and iPhones (as well as their competitors) are being used more frequently for casual web browsing, e-mail correspondence, and social networking–all tasks that had once been reserved for desktop and laptop computers.
The transition to one platform that appears more convenient is hardly unfamiliar to those who have been in the computing world for some time. Laptop computers were introduced in the 1980s but started picking up steam in the 1990s (in no small part because of the PowerBook). The convenience of a laptop prompted a few to predict that they would eventually replace desktops. Nineteen years after the first PowerBook hit the market, desktops are still around, and while many have resorted to laptops as their sole choice of computer, there are plenty of folks who still rely on desktop computing. Professionals often resort to Mac Pros because of their expandability, which is a necessity in many fields. The iMac remains popular due to its large display size, especially in an era when web-based content is slowly replacing traditional television and home video systems and the majority of television sets are too large to be practical in smaller dwellings.
Laptops, too, still have their purpose. Despite the availability of keyboards, both on-screen and physical, mobile platforms are not considered to be good choices for productivity, especially word processing. It's fine to enter a web address or type a short e-mail message with the touch keypad of an iPad. Using an iPad to compose a novel figures to be an unpleasant experience, especially for those used to touch typing. Some would argue that mobile versions of the iWork applications would make this experience somewhat better, but all one has to do is recall the old Windows CE operating system, which also failed as a productivity platform despite "pocket" versions of Microsoft Word and Excel.
Connectivity is also an issue with Apple platforms. Not everything is wireless, and the majority of wired peripherals are designed for standard bus systems such as FireWire and USB. Plugging in a camcorder or scanner is easy on a laptop, not so much on an iPad. The same can be said of graphics devices, which not only require the connectivity, but also are better suited for a machine whose graphics capabilities are better suited for photo editing.
That being said, both desktops and laptops still look to have their uses in today's world. Some have argued that the iPhone OS will eventually replace today's Mac OS X, but there are plenty of arguments against it as well. Apple has tried to use simplified shells on their machines, usually as an option, since 1985, when the MiniFinder was introduced as an optional component of the system software. The MiniFinder bore a striking resemblance to today's iPhone OS but was unpopular due to its oversimplification. It was removed from the system three years later but the concept made a comeback in 1992 on the Performa line, which shipped with both At Ease and the Launcher. The former was popular with schools worried about students accessing teacher and administrator files but never caught on with home users (except for the savvy Mac users with only 2MB RAM installed in their machines, who used it to save RAM consumption). The latter was a window-based dock wannabe that continued to ship with the Classic Mac OS until its demise yet was only used by a small percentage of Mac users. Both At Ease and Launcher, like Minifinder before them, were condemned by the public for being too restrictive.
The closed and simple nature of the iPhone, iPod Touch, and iPad differentiates mobile devices from a traditional computer. These devices are not going to produce the amount of files that require intense organization, nor will they be devices that will be easily customized to suit a particular application or use. The flexibility of the traditional computer, which does much more than utilize simple "apps" that have about as much power as a consumer-level program from 18 years ago, necessitates a more complicated operating system.
The concept of the Macintosh appears to be safe for some time, especially since Apple will want to retain its customer base in the professional market where a higher-powered machine is needed, as well as in the classroom, where not everything can be accomplished on a mobile device (although this will probably be the fastest-growing segment of the educational computing market this coming decade). In fact, Apple themselves advocates the use of traditional Macintosh computers in today's classrooms, as evidenced by their seminars for educators on the use of iLife in the educational environment. (These seminars are excellent and come personally recommended for anyone in the field of education). This is proof that Apple has no plans to kill off traditional computing anytime soon despite the fact that Macs are rarely mentioned at Apple trade shows or advertised on television and are vanishing from the subject matter of the Macintosh magazines.
Are all of Apple's offerings safe? Most are, but there is reason to believe some models could be consolidated or expanded.
The MacBook and MacBook Pro lines are top-sellers in their field and will continue to be even with the iPad now on the market. They will probably continue on as usual, with perhaps a few additional price points added along the way (especially a lower-priced MacBook if no "iPad Pro" model is introduced down the line). There will never be an Apple netbook due to the iPad, nor does there appear to be much future for the MacBook Air, an underpowered and overpriced ultra-thin laptop. This is the model most likely to go in the wake of the iPad, although its legacy may live on in future laptops, as optical drives are likely to be phased out soon in favor of online distribution for content (which Apple has already been emphasizing for seven years with the iTunes store).
Desktop Macs will probably remain as they are. The Mac Pro has a niche market and will continue to sell to the folks who need an expandable Macintosh system. The iMac line is the one Apple will need to keep interesting if it is to remain viable. The current screen sizes allow for it to be a suitable TV replacement in kitchens and living areas yet do not compromise its practicality as a computer. Marketing it as a "digital hub" may help for its sales to grow and could lead the iMac to its future position in the market–a consumer media center computer (a position which it appears to be trying to fit into now but has yet to do so, perhaps due to a slow economy or a lack of advertising on Apple's part).
If any one product is critically endangered, it is the iPod Classic. While iPods in general are not selling as well as they had been, the Classic is slotted between the more compact iPod nano (more popular among those who need simply a music player) and the iPod Touch, which does infinitely more than the Classic and has a lower entry level price point despite having a lower overall storage capacity. Still, it is hard to imagine anyone having 40,000 songs–it took me six years to purchase 1000 tracks on the iTunes store–to fill up an iPod Classic. The diminutive Shuffle is also likely to go within the next few years, especially if the nano gets smaller.
The Macintosh is here to stay. Sure, the MacBook Air may go, but so have many other lines in Macintosh history–remember the Duo or the Cube? If anything is endangered, it's the original iPod, which has its roots in the 5GB device first seen in 2001. It may be hard to part with a classic design, but remember that we did the same thing in 1993 when the last black and white compact Mac was produced after a nine year run. The Macintosh lived on after that, just as the iPod line will chug forward without the original form factor. It will coexist nicely with the iPad (which will endanger netbooks from competitors more than it will threaten Apple's own devices), the iPhone (which many still shy away from due to only being available from AT&T), and the Macintosh line–which will be around for a long time to come, as there will always be folks who need more than a mobile device for their needs, and I think most of us can agree that this category includes almost all of us.
It cannot be denied that mobile devices are starting to supplant traditional computers for some uses. iPod Touches, iPads, and iPhones (as well as their competitors) are being used more frequently for casual web browsing, e-mail correspondence, and social networking–all tasks that had once been reserved for desktop and laptop computers.
The transition to one platform that appears more convenient is hardly unfamiliar to those who have been in the computing world for some time. Laptop computers were introduced in the 1980s but started picking up steam in the 1990s (in no small part because of the PowerBook). The convenience of a laptop prompted a few to predict that they would eventually replace desktops. Nineteen years after the first PowerBook hit the market, desktops are still around, and while many have resorted to laptops as their sole choice of computer, there are plenty of folks who still rely on desktop computing. Professionals often resort to Mac Pros because of their expandability, which is a necessity in many fields. The iMac remains popular due to its large display size, especially in an era when web-based content is slowly replacing traditional television and home video systems and the majority of television sets are too large to be practical in smaller dwellings.
Laptops, too, still have their purpose. Despite the availability of keyboards, both on-screen and physical, mobile platforms are not considered to be good choices for productivity, especially word processing. It's fine to enter a web address or type a short e-mail message with the touch keypad of an iPad. Using an iPad to compose a novel figures to be an unpleasant experience, especially for those used to touch typing. Some would argue that mobile versions of the iWork applications would make this experience somewhat better, but all one has to do is recall the old Windows CE operating system, which also failed as a productivity platform despite "pocket" versions of Microsoft Word and Excel.
Connectivity is also an issue with Apple platforms. Not everything is wireless, and the majority of wired peripherals are designed for standard bus systems such as FireWire and USB. Plugging in a camcorder or scanner is easy on a laptop, not so much on an iPad. The same can be said of graphics devices, which not only require the connectivity, but also are better suited for a machine whose graphics capabilities are better suited for photo editing.
That being said, both desktops and laptops still look to have their uses in today's world. Some have argued that the iPhone OS will eventually replace today's Mac OS X, but there are plenty of arguments against it as well. Apple has tried to use simplified shells on their machines, usually as an option, since 1985, when the MiniFinder was introduced as an optional component of the system software. The MiniFinder bore a striking resemblance to today's iPhone OS but was unpopular due to its oversimplification. It was removed from the system three years later but the concept made a comeback in 1992 on the Performa line, which shipped with both At Ease and the Launcher. The former was popular with schools worried about students accessing teacher and administrator files but never caught on with home users (except for the savvy Mac users with only 2MB RAM installed in their machines, who used it to save RAM consumption). The latter was a window-based dock wannabe that continued to ship with the Classic Mac OS until its demise yet was only used by a small percentage of Mac users. Both At Ease and Launcher, like Minifinder before them, were condemned by the public for being too restrictive.
The closed and simple nature of the iPhone, iPod Touch, and iPad differentiates mobile devices from a traditional computer. These devices are not going to produce the amount of files that require intense organization, nor will they be devices that will be easily customized to suit a particular application or use. The flexibility of the traditional computer, which does much more than utilize simple "apps" that have about as much power as a consumer-level program from 18 years ago, necessitates a more complicated operating system.
The concept of the Macintosh appears to be safe for some time, especially since Apple will want to retain its customer base in the professional market where a higher-powered machine is needed, as well as in the classroom, where not everything can be accomplished on a mobile device (although this will probably be the fastest-growing segment of the educational computing market this coming decade). In fact, Apple themselves advocates the use of traditional Macintosh computers in today's classrooms, as evidenced by their seminars for educators on the use of iLife in the educational environment. (These seminars are excellent and come personally recommended for anyone in the field of education). This is proof that Apple has no plans to kill off traditional computing anytime soon despite the fact that Macs are rarely mentioned at Apple trade shows or advertised on television and are vanishing from the subject matter of the Macintosh magazines.
Are all of Apple's offerings safe? Most are, but there is reason to believe some models could be consolidated or expanded.
The MacBook and MacBook Pro lines are top-sellers in their field and will continue to be even with the iPad now on the market. They will probably continue on as usual, with perhaps a few additional price points added along the way (especially a lower-priced MacBook if no "iPad Pro" model is introduced down the line). There will never be an Apple netbook due to the iPad, nor does there appear to be much future for the MacBook Air, an underpowered and overpriced ultra-thin laptop. This is the model most likely to go in the wake of the iPad, although its legacy may live on in future laptops, as optical drives are likely to be phased out soon in favor of online distribution for content (which Apple has already been emphasizing for seven years with the iTunes store).
Desktop Macs will probably remain as they are. The Mac Pro has a niche market and will continue to sell to the folks who need an expandable Macintosh system. The iMac line is the one Apple will need to keep interesting if it is to remain viable. The current screen sizes allow for it to be a suitable TV replacement in kitchens and living areas yet do not compromise its practicality as a computer. Marketing it as a "digital hub" may help for its sales to grow and could lead the iMac to its future position in the market–a consumer media center computer (a position which it appears to be trying to fit into now but has yet to do so, perhaps due to a slow economy or a lack of advertising on Apple's part).
If any one product is critically endangered, it is the iPod Classic. While iPods in general are not selling as well as they had been, the Classic is slotted between the more compact iPod nano (more popular among those who need simply a music player) and the iPod Touch, which does infinitely more than the Classic and has a lower entry level price point despite having a lower overall storage capacity. Still, it is hard to imagine anyone having 40,000 songs–it took me six years to purchase 1000 tracks on the iTunes store–to fill up an iPod Classic. The diminutive Shuffle is also likely to go within the next few years, especially if the nano gets smaller.
The Macintosh is here to stay. Sure, the MacBook Air may go, but so have many other lines in Macintosh history–remember the Duo or the Cube? If anything is endangered, it's the original iPod, which has its roots in the 5GB device first seen in 2001. It may be hard to part with a classic design, but remember that we did the same thing in 1993 when the last black and white compact Mac was produced after a nine year run. The Macintosh lived on after that, just as the iPod line will chug forward without the original form factor. It will coexist nicely with the iPad (which will endanger netbooks from competitors more than it will threaten Apple's own devices), the iPhone (which many still shy away from due to only being available from AT&T), and the Macintosh line–which will be around for a long time to come, as there will always be folks who need more than a mobile device for their needs, and I think most of us can agree that this category includes almost all of us.
Opinions expressed belong solely to the author, and do not represent the views of The Mac 512.
